Sunday, January 8, 2017

Three Things To Remind You About China And Uncertainty


The Chinese are being hemmed in by a cluster of very big problems, none of which, of course, is helped by a world already swirling around a drain of diminishing resources. To the degree that this sort of thing makes leaders more desperate to hold things together (as in their still being in charge, not to mention the population kept from outright revolt), the rest of the world can expect a great deal more uncertainty, both in the realm of economics, and in potential conflict.

The degree to which we respond with ever more simplistic posturing and confrontation will only make a bad situation worse. And I mean a hell of a lot worse.

This is precisely the time when thoughtful diplomacy, where the emphasis needs to be on finding positive ways towards mutually helpful engagement, with carefully measured resistance to belligerence, is absolutely required; which will necessitate a great deal of patience and restraint on our part. We need this because we have to recognize the a great deal of what will be coming out of Chinese leadership now will be formulated on the basis of diverting the populace's attention to "foreign threats" so as to keep them from getting too worked up about the critical issues they face, and for which they are suffering under.

The balancing act required of us is important as well because we need to respect the very understandable desire of the Chinese to be seen as respected equals in the play of world affairs. We need that not only because conflict would be disastrous for all involved, but also because every problem the world, and humanity, faces needs the Chinese to be partners with us, as well as with the rest of Asia, India, the Pacific nations, and Europe, and Africa. Because, like it or not, lasting solutions for our problems are going to be impossible without that partnership.

The bottom line here? Just know that every time you see the new guy in the White House spouting off with "tweet" mentality bluster towards the Chinese he is make a very bad situation a great deal worse. And as he does so you can kiss any economic growth, or peace of mind for that matter, good by.