Monday, April 3, 2017

The Futility Of Building Infrastructure...

...On the shifting sands of market determined value.

Sure, when there are the brief moments of general stability in markets, such infrastructure developments can be made to seem quite beneficial, but when things aren't so stable, all bets tend to go into the "off" status. Which then begs the question: how much can we depend on ongoing market stability in the first place; something economists have been asking themselves, in one form or another for a long time now.

Perhaps another question in this regard is more suitable for our needs here. And that question is this: How much can we expect the forces that create instability to be ameliorated, or lessened in the future? And in that one only needs to look at what is coming down the pike to see what is likely in store for us.

Greater unpredictability in extreme weather. Greater unpredictability in the availability of critical resources. Greater unpredictability in "disruptive" inputs derived from technological competition. Greater unpredictability from ever increasing, directly displaced populations, and/or no longer economically viable populations. Greater unpredictability from the interplay of nations given the already mentioned, other sources of unpredictability. The greater unpredictability of the continually mutating economic system itself as ever more reforms are attempted to counter the effects of ever more poorly understood behaviors that this mutating monster will undoubtedly be presenting us with now that unknowable AI systems begin to do more and more of the decision making, at ever faster speeds.

From my perspective one wonders why any sane person would put any faith into there being enough stability simply to keep any government running at all, within consistent norms of what constitutes livable parameters, given these likely areas of instability creation, let alone bits of public infrastructure. You, of course, can draw your own conclusions. Just remember that even great dreamers like Elon Musk is being forced to reconsider great private development plans for transportation systems of various types. Some of these may ultimately succeed, but the fits and starts along the way may give us ample cause to wonder about the overall efficacy of the approach.

Just more things to think about as we march, lemming like, towards a great precipice of unpredictability.


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