Saturday, June 2, 2018

Haven't We Learned By Now That, If Something Can Happen, It Will Happen, Eventually.

And if we consider that all this will really take, in order for "eventually" to come round again here, is just another economic shock event. And gosh oh golly, aint the world just primed now to deliver economic shock events.

What else would you expect when more and more turbulence is being pumped into every system, both natural, and human dependant, over every unit of time, than ever before. Both the turbulence of so many critical issues, some many decades old, not resolved (and festering for all of that time), as well as the increased tensions around the world because so many dangerous competitions are getting ever more dangerous as each day passes. Dwindling resources. Ever sharper business competitions over markets. And ever more military situations just waiting for that butterfly wing flapping somewhere to goose a lot of itchy trigger fingers. All the while everybody is screwing with everybody else's internal affairs; trying to manipulate. Try to control for an ever more confusing array of special interests. And all the time the only thing the powerful are interested in is more power.

What is most amazing about this to me, as a long time observer of this sort of interaction of economics, and human nature, is that it's framed as a question at all. Framed as a question almost timidly as one gets the feeling that it is done as a sort of desperately hopeful, whistling in the dark action. A kind of "maybe we'll get lucky this time" kind of desperate hopefulness. Something I think is usually referred to as wishful thinking.

Time will tell of course, but I'm pretty sure you will not like the telling of this story as it happens; again.

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[Post Note: It is certainly true that noting any particular weather event is not really talking about climate effects. A particular event is just the culmination of a whole lot of variables having their relative probabilities realized. So many variables in fact that it still makes weather forecasting as much art as it is science; because ever more now things can really surprise you.

As this article makes clear, why storms seem to be getting more powerful is controversial even within the scientific community. That's not going to stop me of course, biased as I am, from profering an opinion, though. I do this in good conscience, however, because I think we are well passed the point where we can wait for really definite proof; which is why, and for good reason, scientists are so reluctant to make more definite statements of what is actually going on vis a vie the entire climatic system. It is their job to be skeptical, after all, as looking for proof is what science is supposed to be about.

There is no time for that now, though, in my opinion, because it is always "half past later than you think" when it comes to getting bad news; which is why a smart leader always wants to get bad news as soon as possible. And I make the timing reference because we already have ample indication that the trend line for polar ice melting is getting worse. And I make the ice reference because it ties into my contention that the one thing you can definitely bank on here is this simple fact: More energy input into a system that cannot radiate that heat back out in the way it used to must mean more energy for the transfer effect that is thermodynamics. That means the potential for more ocean water evaporated at any given moment, or water anywhere else for that matter. That means more rain someplace else. Taken together, what you get is a: a big temperature change at the ocean's surface, which makes a whole lot of ocean water want to move around. And b: when the water condenses out of the air, another exchange of energy is made to happen, which also gets a lot of air moving. And as long as there is a reservoir of cold to keep these differences in temperature available, so that more exchanges can take place, having more heat to exchange with will usually mean more effect in each exchange. As such, it ought to be obvious that circulation events, which is the air and water moving around, will be doing it with a lot more effective power.

The truly unfortunate part of this, however, is a real double whammy. That is so because this bigger energy exchange relationship is undoubtedly why we are losing polar ice; and why the trend line keeps getting worse. What you may not realize, though, is that to address this problem we are going to have find a way to input cold at the poles to save the ice, and so save having circulating air, and oceans at all; and we have to provide that cold in truly intimidating amounts. Doing that, however, is probably going to make the severe weather get even worse, until we can get a handle on pulling more carbon out of the atmosphere; and that's going to take decades, even if we can mobilize the entire world in very short order here. J.V.]

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