Wednesday, December 16, 2015

This is the best they can do? Seriously?

The paucity of imagination in this Bloomberg sponsored view into what the economic and political elites think are the worst case scenarios for 2016 is just breathtaking. You need only consider the lack of domino effect, cascade events, suggested to fully appreciate this.

In Extreme weather alone is there more than enough potential to make anyone with any imagination at all have their hair turn completely white, and fear wrought apoplexy begin. Just consider absolute droughts in prime growing regions simultaneously, perhaps with final ground water collapse. Then the subsequent commodities markets chaos triggering further market dislocations. And suddenly you might also have food riots; price riots, and new waves of economic refugees moving in completely unexpected areas.

Extreme weather, in conjunction with whatever ongoing, or new (to combat the immediate weather effects), chemical inputs by man might also trigger completely unexpected biological mutations. New strains of crop diseases, let alone human diseases, could suddenly appear, and kick off their own disaster chain reactions.

Instead we have "Putan Sidelining the U.S." or that idiot with the dorky hair in the White House to scare us with. Mind you, that idiot there would certainly be bad, but nothing compared to global cascade events.

The fact of the matter, and what is missed so completely in this sort of future casting, is the inability to admit to the one key vulnerability involved here: the absolute weakness of the current economic operating model to either address known vulnerabilities, or to respond to them.

Let us knot forget that value lies entirely in the mind of the evaluator, and the economic mind is so prone to herd thinking, thus giving us the foundation for market instability in times of uncertainty. Let us also not forget that getting anything done in a cost based economy requires the use of various counters whose value also relies on perception.

If a chain is no stronger than its weakest link then we have ample reason to fear cascade events breaking even the strongest links because that first one is made out of smoke and mirrors; and when it fails the momentum begun may well be unstoppable.

A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2016