The following post was prompted by the New York Times Magazine article linked below.
Either the futurists at Shell are really stupid, or their objectivity ought to be quite suspect. The fact of the matter is that sea based wind power, producing hydrogen, could grow at a much higher rate (than the article's Shell futurist suggests) if the will was there to make it happen.
Don't believe for one second that we couldn't move to a hydrogen based economy in very rapid order; especially if all of the usual concerns of Big Money were taken out of the equation. You know... Things like (to mention just a few) risk, established capital investments, and a lack of control over what is most essential in any commodity; that it never fall below a certain level of scarcity. You need only look at how diamonds are kept artificially scarce to see how this sort of things works.
One has to wonder just how much the people at Shell, be they futurists, or overseers, concern themselves with so called "Chaos" scenarios. After all, they are the ones that firmly established oil as a guaranteed scarce commodity. And you can be sure that they will be able to pass any of the costs of increased risks along to us.
Shell Oil’s Cold Calculations for a Warming World