Sunday, March 5, 2017

Making Sense Of Defense Spending Decisions


One of the biggest problems when our government tries to talk about defense spending is that, all too often, a big number (or relatively big) will be thrown out with the statement, usually meant to show the fervor for which the proponent supports a strong defense, that they are increasing our nation's defenses.

 We're getting more of nearly the same now, though the current occupant of the White House seems to prefer the emphasis to be a bit more on the fact that his increase will be the biggest ever, but, be that as it may, we get this sort of thing presented as a number; a number for some kind of an increase, but not knowing what the increase is exactly for, or what that increase means in terms of a new defense spending total, the rational, hopefully, involved, is not made clear at all. And, as usual, it is because we are given so little context to make any reasonable judgements on.

Because we've been on this merry go round before, we ought to consider coming at in in another way. And I thought I might propose a suggestion. Why not break out the defense budget into at least three separate appropriations bills.

1. Operations.
2. Procurement.
3. Research and development.

I tried Googling various permutations of "breaking out defense appropriations into more than one bill" and didn't get anything suggesting somebody has already been trying to propose this, but I'd be really surprised if that were actually the case. I would find it very hard to believe, in fact, that somebody, somewhere in the system, hasn't tried to push this idea out. It seems pretty obvious to me.

Anyways... To start off, obviously, if we task our men and women in uniform to do X, Y and Z then we have to give them the resources they require to do X, Y and Z. And we should restrain ourselves to the main emphasis of scrutiny here; that being one based simply on basic economic due diligence: are we getting the value we contracted for from our contractors, and are we paying for an efficient means to not only acquire the items in question, but to also then marshal, and distribute effectively? Beyond that scrutiny they should get what they ask for and we should leave them to it.

You can breeze by the third spending item fairly quickly as well because, firstly, no country can afford technological surprize, and secondly, it can come back to just another case of just doing the "economic due diligence" thing. Coordinating other science budgets would be desirable as well, but that's a topic for another post.

The second appropriations bill is where things can tend to get really confusing. This is so because, as a Nation, we don't put a lot of time into talking about what are our greatest threats are, and how we go about prioritizing them.

You really need to have this conversation because that provides a big input into what you are likely going to want your military to be tasked with in the first place. You have to be careful with this, however, because you also want to coordinate this prioritization with the budgeting, and tasking, of your State Department as well. It's mandatory in fact as they are your main eyes, ears, and mouthpieces, to the rest of the world, and you main means of either avoiding instability, or defusing ing it.

And, if that were bad enough, you also, now, have to coordinate with your Environmental agency because everything around us really is interconnected. So much so, in fact, that one of main forms of instability to come will be based, all, or at least in part, on rising seas, or ever more frequent extreme weather events (droughts, as well as floods, terrible snow storms as well as terrible heat waves, as well as the usual "bigger" tornado, or hurricane), with the other main form being the rising tensions do to dwindling resource supplies, but that connects to the environment too, however tangentially.

So we know we have religious extremists to deal with. We know we have other nations with which tensions have increased. We know that destabilized regions around the world breed desperate people. We know that desperate people do desperate things not only out of immediate deprivation, but also because they can be easy targets for manipulation. And in that one is quite justified in making an emphasis.

In the desperate can be sown a hatred for another people; a hatred that can be stitched with a tight knit of fringe religious justification, and scape goating, so textured and dense, it can become a cultural heritage. This is one of the reasons why it is possible to have hundred year wars, or greater.

You can see here why working to avoid destabilized regions, and the desperate people they create, might be a good thing to do. But even if you have diplomacy in mind, you often need first to establish some order so that people on the ground can get help, as well as the ability to start talking again. Or you need to make it clear that somebody can't just bully their way into new facts on the ground, with complete, or nearly complete, disregard to all of the other stakeholders in the region. In either case you need a credible big stick to indicate that your are ready, and able, to bring on the bruising.

We have another problem here, however, and that is the fact that our own history is a very checkered one. The simple fact of the matter is that we have abused the taking of resources from others in the past, and we may well be doing so now by various commercial interests; interests that have a funny habit of saying they have the rights of an American citizen, but are then quite selective as to which of the responsibilities they are then also supposed to adhere to.

They say we need to protect their access to these resources for the good of the nation, but then obfuscate just how beneficial that resource is in the first place, or whether the deal they're getting from the country in question really benefits anyone other than them, and the, often, distasteful people in charge of things there.

I don't want to get side tracked here by the shenanigans that such interests involve themselves with, so I'll just boil it down to this: What we end up with, often, are threat identifications that come more from protecting access to one resource or another; whether that resource has it's own negative issues or not, or whether the arrangement by which we get them is, in any way, of mutual benefit to the people ostensibly living with, and by, that resource.

The point here is that, a lot of times it's not just destabilized regions you need to prevent, you also need to ask deeper questions as to factors involved in the destabilization. Maybe the extraction of of a thing worth a lot of money is involved as well. Maybe that extraction poisons the people who live nearby. Maybe they get poisoned, and the money made gets pissed away by corrupt officials as well. This then leads to a potential double whammy (from the poisoning and the money being ripped off) being impacted on a nation that might otherwise want to be able to make declarations of intent, or descriptions of others, from as firm a moral ground as it is practical for a nation to be.

Working from a firmer moral ground certainly won't stop people from hating you. No matter what ethical, and moral precepts you strive to work from, fringe belief systems will always have reason to find fault. That is just the way it is. If you see things from a quite different frame of reference, how could it be otherwise? The thing is, however, to the degree you can work from a more universally acceptable set of moral standards, the more weight your collective voice can have when trying to act as that proverbial "honest" broker in the effort to cooperate in keeping the species alive. Because, at the end of the day, that's actually not only one of our highest priorities, it needs to be so for the rest of the world as well. Of course, with a more effective collective voice, convincing the rest of the world of this fact also becomes a good deal easier.

This is why trying to work with the rest of the world, and be proactive to situations, is not us trying to be the world's police force. It is us, in the best sense of enlightened self interest, trying to lead the effort to find consensus, and the ability to keep talking, while we all work on what is, or what could be, common ground for a more universally acceptable set of moral standards; even if it can't ultimately be reached. Because, somehow, despite what differences remain, the survival of the species is the base line. And to do that we have to find ways to keep cooperating no matter how distasteful, or repugnant, we may ultimately find each other.

If it hasn't occurred to you yet then it really needs to. Open, all out world wide war is simply no longer feasible in any sense whatsoever. No matter what tactical, or strategic goal you hope to attain, the cost of another world war will far outstrip any value you might think to gain. So many tipping points for cascade events are already in place for critical human infrastructure, as well as for natural systems of energy flow (all of the fluid dynamics of our atmosphere, and oceans), or biological replenishment in disrupted food chains, that a major war would be catastrophe across multiple layers of what keeps everything going. It is indeed just plain insanity that people still think they can win such things; thinking that prevailing militarily would make up for the loss of everything else that would actually allow people to continue on living prosperous lives.

The sad fact here is that, even if we wanted to have that national discussion on what are our most critical priorities, it would not be allowed to take place. Not a real one mind you. Not one where everyone comes clean on what they personally stand to gain from it, as well as what it might pertain to the interests of the rest of us. Even more unfortunate is the fact that many of us are ready to participate in obfuscating things precisely because we have skin in the game as well. A good job. A good income. Some prestige in fact. Why wouldn't you want to preserve some of that. Especially if you are just a working stiff, trying to get by, educate your kids, work at something you can be proud of. Maybe the weapon produced isn't the most cost effective, but it works pretty well, and it keeps our community going. Maybe the resource I help collect, and make available, isn't the cleanest, but we have to have something don't we? And my kids need dental work, and the wife may need an operation.

And so it goes. All completely human, and quite understandable. Not very helpful in deciding what our priorities should be though. But it is understandable.

This ought to beg a big question then, and that is my bottom line here. Perhaps we are just not structurally set up anymore to make objective, collective decisions, because all of the various interests of the stakeholders involved are at so many cross purposes. And also, of course, because so few of us enjoy a freedom of speech the rest of us do not have. A freedom of speech that can make a great deal more use of electrified amplification (where it's not just louder speech, but speech that can be spread out across both the breadth of media pathways, but also across the depth of time; allowing for the continuous, coordinated expression of message, in an ongoing, reinforcing, manner, as well as containing all of the best psychological techniques expensive research can buy). And if that is the case then what might be a better way to structure ourselves so that this not nearly so much the case?

As you might expect, I think my alternative offers a path to that new structure. I urge to look at it. Take it apart. Find what you see as the bad parts and suggest better solutions. Maybe you can come up with a better place to begin with altogether. That would be great too. Do that or defend what is in place now. Just do something that would help actually change things for the better. The clock is ticking.

Some Military Experts Say Trump’s Defense Budget Doesn’t Add Up


See Also:






Saturday, March 4, 2017

A Useful Reminder Of Priorities but...

...Space needs to be more than just a science project.

Michael Hiltzik has put out a good read on criticizing the terrible Mr. T's call for more manned space exploration. I recommend you give it a look. And I can tell you from the start that it's hard to find any fault with his argument.

In the context of doing science in the most efficient manner possible, he is absolutely correct in maintaining that robot probes are the best way to go. And in this time of competing priorities one does need to be very mindful of priority triage. If it ain't about to bleed out, or stop breathing, in some way, it needs to be set aside for a while until we take care of the more pressing matters. And as pressing matters go, climate change is right up there with an entire eco system about to bleed out, and stop breathing.

I couldn't agree more when you think about space development in general in the narrow context of just extracting science. But you really do need to ask the question: can we afford to be thinking about space only in those terms?

A big part of the problem here is precisely that we have no real, robust, space entry, and space operations infrastructure. And making that, to the degree that it would have real impact, is going to take some serious lead time. So then the question is: When do you make time to do the lead time to get where you can do a lot more manned, or unmanned. And make no mistake, we will need that infrastructure. If for no other reason than we simply cannot allow our species to have all of its eggs (literally) in one basket.

My perspective is all about "how can I leverage things so that I am addressing as many things at the same time as is humanly possible." Hence the call for not only global cooperation, but specifically targeted cooperation. Building Tornado Turbines at sea is an example in point. Working together to make large, liquid hydrogen production streams possible, does exactly that. It puts a proper replacement fuel on a priority production list. It starts the bridge building for more cooperative projects. It starts the terrestrial infrastructure for sea based platforms, platforms made of bio responsible materials that will give the less developed world a new cash crop, even as it also gives the world the ability to quickly assemble floating cities (so the displaced will have somewhere to live when the sea levels rise), and lastly, it also makes it possible to build a space launch system worthy of large throughput operations. The kind of volume handling capacities that would make every day industry out there viable.

I am talking here about building under water, suspended tunnels. Tunnels that start very deep, positioned somewhere along the equator, extending at least two hundred fifty, to three hundred miles in length, rising up at a shallow angle from the sea floor so that, with the last thousand feet or so, you have the exit up, out of the water, and pointing towards the stars. And in this tunnel you put a mass driver system. A system that can put at least a 100 ton payload into near earth orbit, and do it at least once every hour. Twenty four seven. It seems to me that it wouldn't take a huge number of such tunnels, spread around the equator, to have yourself the equivalent of a space launch rail road. At which point a great many options become a great deal more practical.

I emphasize all of this because it is my firm belief that the cosmos needs us out there being, and making, just as much as we need the space to grow in. We need the new sense of frontier, it needs to be perceived, studied, appreciated, and lived in, just as much. It needs this to keep itself from going into that ultimate cold of no further variation. The differential boundaries where all the real change always happens. But sentient beings, as meaning processors, using their hold on meaning space to make good choices, so as to build thoughtful, loving structure, in as many "out there's" as possible. Showing exactly why meaning space, and physical space can work to not only make each other, but to make something worthy of thoughtful, loving people.

On the face of it this may seem like really, way out there, long term thinking, but I assure you it is not. It is simply lining your ducks up now to get, and keep, that leverage thing going in the first place. Once you start in on a more completely integrated path, there is never, really, any one thing you need to finish in order to start receiving benefit. This is so because there is truth to the idea that the right path, the right journey, is the main benefit all on its own. And I can also assure you that, if we can find that right path; that right journey, we will know it, and feel it down to the bone.


Column 

Trump's call for human space exploration is hugely wasteful and pointless


By Michael Hiltzik






Another "No Shit Sherlock" moment

The story linked below, on the study done about what not having a decent paying, manufacturing job, can do to a person's ability to form relationships, prompted this response:


What am I making
when I make something
of value
and am
given something
of value in return?
Is it really
the product of machines?
Or is it something
actually made in me
that lets me know
I matter.

How can I make
any contribution
to a relationship
if I can't make
a me that matters
in the first place?

A me that matters
just knows he can
belong, because he creates
his own justification
for being known, and recognized
as a worthy contributor
in helping the rest
of the community make it work
for the company of others
to keep working as well
and a community that can share
in making their own sense
of value and significance.

Take that away and
it doesn't matter
what you make of work
if you won't recognize
what we need to make
of value in ourselves.


When Factory Jobs Vanish, Men Become Less Desirable Partners

Declines in manufacturing employment are shaping the structure of the American family.




Friday, March 3, 2017

Do Not Lose Sight Of This Story...

...The Russian money laundering bank in Cyprus


The Russian money laundering bank in Cyprus



There Is No Such Thing As A Useless Class

There is only myopic thinking. Or perhaps we can label it as Marshal McLuhan did way back when: Rearview Mirror thinking: That is, seeing things only through the lens of how things have been, and not as they could be (the famous example being calling the new invention of the automobile a horseless carriage), let alone as they should be.

I say this, as I consider the linked article below from Ideas,Ted.com about the "Rise of the Useless" class. What unmitigated BS.

What we are really talking about here is a group of people who are no longer economically competitive; which is to say people who can certainly still do different tasks, they just can't do them as cost effectively as other alternatives. And of course, these days, cost effective is the mantra of all who toil within the realities of ever increasing competition. If the competition weren't so intense globally, then it wouldn't matter near as much when an alternative means of accomplishing something is a bit more, or a bit less expensive. But because of that competition, and because we seem so unable to question the ongoing efficacy of the system that has placed us into this ever increasing competition, we accept, without question, a labeling of people that does more violence to what it means to be human, than perhaps even what bigotry does.

At least with bigotry it is an ugly expression of humans being arbitrary to themselves, out of fear, and/or blind hatred. Here we have a blind acceptance of what a machine mentality would conclude out of cold, logical, rationality.

The true insidiousness of this violence is hidden by the fact that a good portion of its effect, if it's noticed at all, is done in addition to the labeling that marginalizes so many, and so unfairly. This is the effect, subtle and not subtle, that induces people to become more like a machine so that they can continue to be cost effective in whatever task performance one might want to talk about. So in this do we see the drive to take on, and then throw off, skill sets, and all that goes with them, at an ever faster pase. A fool's errand in essence as it seeks to pretend that we can somehow be machine tools; reprogrammable ad nauseum. And this even as we also pretend that we can do each task, while we have it, at the same speed as machines, and with the same overall commitment of our total time available. The only other thing, then, that can possibly be allowed, when not working, is consuming because that's what is supposed to close this vicious circle.

What is so unfathomable in all of this is the lack of response asking why we would want to continue going down this path in the first place. An operating system is, after all, supposed to operate for the benefit of the users, not for the benefit of the operating system itself. But that is exactly what is happening now as subservience to the system becomes ever more akin to religious adherence, and belief. It then becomes its own, self justifying, definition of reality, and what living in that reality must demand.

The really sad part here is the fact that the technology that has warped the current operating system, is also the means that we could use to set things up in a completely different way; a way in which human involvement, where the point is to preserve, and improve, what are the best parts of being human, is essential. An alternative where we would all be needed to keep each community going. That alternative is what this blog is all about in fact.

Sure, you're thinking, but wouldn't the possibility of automation make human involvement even there moot? And the answer there is maybe.

I say maybe because this is where a very important choice would come into the picture. A choice encapsulated in an adage I like to remind people of from time to time: Woe be to those who become too separated from that which sustains them.

This is certainly a theme that speculative fiction has worked with on more than just a few occasions. You know... The various societies, usually depicted has having become quite spoiled, vacuous, and insipid; depending on the big computer to run everything and, for one reason or another, is finally unable to repair itself.

What we're talking about here is simply another aspect of being connected. We need to be better connected to each other, of course, so as to be able to do a better balance between the rights of the individual, as opposed to the rights of the community as a whole. To do a better balance so as to provide for what I like to call "thoughtful, loving structure," means we also need to be connected to life, and living as well. Truly connected because it cannot nourish and extend us, if we do not participate in close, always ongoing, integration with it. Where we try, ever more diligently, to adapt to it, rather than all of the smashing, and burying, and mowing over to make it adapt to us. An ideal, in effect, where we try to grow with life, not in spite of it, or on its back to an unthinkable degree.

Each and every one of you out there need to start thinking about these choices. And sooner rather than later. The way things are going the ability to even consider that a choice is available at all will disappear in the not too distant future. And it will be both life, and us, who will suffer in the extreme.


The rise of the useless class

Feb 24, 2017 







Wednesday, March 1, 2017

The Capitalist's Montra...

There is profit in scarcity, but there can be no scarcity in profit. Whatever it takes.





The Real Undocumented Immigrant Problem...

...Has nothing to do with people crossing borders without passports, or visas. In fact it's not really about people at all any more, but about phantoms created within the entire web of social media.

I'm talking about the bots that have been mobilized, or weaponized as Steve Bannon likes to say, to sneak into the new communities of interest, concern, or the simple need to know the truth. These electrified, soulless, collections of triggers and responses, set up with names, and backgrounds (if need be), and whatever else might be required to give them credibility, come into these communities pretending to be just like you, except on whatever particular thing their masters want you to now know is a mistake in what you think you know.

And so these "immigrants" go to work making content, clicks, and views, and positive reinforcing links (wherever such reinforcing needs to be) so that even search, "auto fill ins" are skewed to reflect the wave of substantiation that the masters of the bots know will influence you. Influence you to see that the new notion, even if it flies in the face of hard science, corrects the mistake in your old view of things.

Everybody who loves what the Web was intended to be. Everybody who has dreamed of what better connected people can do with the free flow of reliable information. Everybody who wants there to be balance in life; real dynamic balance that keeps any one extreme of thought, or action, or imposition of norms, to not get out of hand. All of you so like minded need to start considering what's at stake in what has become an undeclared war on social discourse. A war where one of the main theatres of operation is the Web itself.

I, for one, think that sites like Twitter, and FaceBook should be abandoned entirely. They have become so manipulated to date that one wonders why anyone would take anything appearing there seriously (why anybody would take discourse in 140 character chunks seriously in the first place has always been a mystery to me, but what do I know). But they, of course, are only one of the symptoms of what allowing what seems like a human voice on the web, where there is no reliable documentation of whether that voice is a person, or a #BotButtPumper (I'm going with that as it conveys, in my mind, the bending over one does when one takes Web "Likes," or "Clicks," or whatever else kind of trend metric seriously, and without scepticism).

What are we going to do to change the Web so that we can rely on one person, one voice? How do we document that kind visa? We certainly can't build a wall around it. Do we try to create some kind of block chain mechanism out of expression? I, obviously, don't know, but people a lot smarter than me should be getting very worried that so little attention is being given to the fact that the war exists at all, let alone that so little is actually being done about it. And people in the regular media still functional better wise up real quick. They need to organize, and coordinate, so that unified countermeasures can be figured out and instituted. Whatever those might be.

Listen people. If we don't get this right, and soon, it might not matter how true anything we say is anymore; no matter how many times we say it. The manipulators will simply drown us out with very convincing noise.

Robert Mercer: the big data billionaire waging war on mainstream media